ANALISIS RASIO KEUANGAN SEBAGAI PREDIKTOR FINANCIAL DISTRESS PADA PERUSAHAAN RITEL YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2021–2025

Abstrak

This study analyzes financial distress conditions among retail companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2021–2025 using four key financial ratios: the current ratio (CR), debt to equity ratio (DER), total asset turnover (TATO), and return on assets (ROA). A quantitative approach was used with secondary data drawn from the annual financial ratio reports of five retail issuers (ACES, MAPI, RALS, LPPF, and MPPA), yielding 25 firm-year observations. Financial distress was operationalized as a dummy variable based on negative net income in the reporting year. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, the Mann-Whitney U test, Pearson correlation, and binary logistic regression. The difference test shows that TATO and ROA differ significantly between the distressed and non-distressed groups (p<0.01), while CR and DER are not significant at the 5% level. The logistic regression using CR, TATO, and ROA exhibited complete separation, since these ratios consistently separated the distressed and non-distressed groups within the sample, so maximum-likelihood coefficients could not be reliably identified — a substantive finding in itself regarding model limitations with small samples. Distressed firms showed higher TATO yet negative ROA, indicating that high sales volume does not guarantee profitability when cost structure and margins are not controlled. The study concludes that ROA and TATO are more relevant indicators than CR and DER in distinguishing the financial condition of retail firms during the post-pandemic recovery period, and recommends a larger sample for future research to allow more stable prediction-model estimation.